自2004年国家实施宏观调控以来，国内固定资产投资仍维持较高增长，加之明显的比较优势和近年来中国机械工业整体技术水平提高，国内机械产品，尤其是中低技术含量、劳动密集型产品的国外需求旺盛。

Since the implementation of macro-control in 2004, domestic investment in fixed assets has maintained a relatively high growth, coupled with obvious comparative advantages and the improvement of the overall technical level of China's machinery industry in recent years, domestic machinery products, especially low-tech, labor-intensive products, have a strong foreign demand.

　　但是，机械行业不同子行业面临迥然不同的下游行业需求变化，未来的分化将更加明显。

However, different sub-industries of the machinery industry are facing very different demand changes of downstream industries, and the differentiation will be more obvious in the future.

　　数控机床异军突起

CNC machine tools are emerging

　　随着冶金、电力设备、汽车行业的投资放缓，机床行业的增速势必放缓。机床制造企业特别是以普通机床为主导产品的企业将面临需求周期性放缓的重大压力。但是数控机床维持旺盛状态，这主要得益于替代普通机床需求与汽车、军工等技术升级增加对精密机床的需求增长。今年1~9月数控机床产值同比增长 18.40%，高于机床类产品增幅4.14个百分点。

With the slowdown of investment in metallurgy, power equipment and automobile industries, the growth of machine tool industry is bound to slow down. Machine tool manufacturing enterprises, especially those with ordinary machine tools as the leading products, will face significant pressure from the cyclical slowdown in demand. However, CNC machine tools remain robust, which is mainly due to the replacement of ordinary machine tools and the automotive, military and other technological upgrades to increase the demand for precision machine tools. From January to September this year, the output value of CNC machine tools increased by 18.40% year on year, which was 4.14 percentage points higher than that of machine tools.

　　但是，国产数控机床竞争力亟待提高，国内市场占有率不断下滑，主要体现在产品质量、可靠性和交货期与国外同类产品相比存在不少差距。进口加工中心数量每年以40%以上的速度增长，国外产品在不断蚕食本土企业的市场份额。因此，我们对国内企业只能持有“谨慎看好”的观点。

However, the competitiveness of domestic CNC machine tools is in urgent need of improvement, the domestic market share is declining, mainly reflected in product quality, reliability and delivery time compared with similar foreign products there are many gaps. The number of imported processing centers is growing at a rate of more than 40% a year, and foreign products are eating into the market share of local companies. Therefore, we can only hold a "cautiously optimistic" view of domestic enterprises.

　　工程机械仍处于景气低谷

Construction machinery is still in the doldrums

　　2004年工程机械行业进入需求萎缩阶段。2005年经产能扩张后，市场竞争进一步加剧。1—9月在统计的工程机械类产品中，除叉车、混凝土机械、铲土运输机械呈恢复性增长外，其余产品均为下降。行业普遍存在存货增加、资金积压、坏账增多、人才流失等多种问题。种种迹象表明工程机械仍处于行业景气低谷。1-9月，14家工程机械企业共实现销售收入202.9亿元，同比减少3.6%;实现净利润7.67亿元，同比减少43.2%。

In 2004, construction machinery industry entered the stage of demand contraction. After the expansion of production capacity in 2005, the market competition is further intensified. From January to September in the statistics of construction machinery products, except forklift trucks, concrete machinery, shovel transport machinery showed a recovery growth, the rest of the products are decreased.
There are many problems in the industry, such as increasing inventory, overstocked capital, increasing bad debts and brain drain. All the signs show that construction machinery is still in the industry boom trough. From January to September, 14 construction machinery enterprises achieved a total sales revenue of 20.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; Net profit reached 767 million yuan, down 43.2 percent year on year.

　　需要提醒投资者的是，“十一五”期间工程机械行业将受益于我国城市化进程的加速和规模庞大的基础设施建设而面临新的市场机遇。因此，我们认为，工程机械行业的谷底即将到来，预计2006年下半年将进入复苏阶段。

Investors need to be reminded that the construction machinery industry will benefit from China's accelerated urbanization and massive infrastructure construction and face new market opportunities during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. Therefore, we believe that the bottom of the construction machinery industry is coming and we expect to enter the recovery phase in the second half of 2006.

　　采掘机械需求维持旺盛

Demand for extractive machinery remains strong

　　进入2005年，石油价格不断攀升，全球石油勘探和开采活动出现恢复性增长。预计2006年，采掘业中的石油和天然气开采业、煤炭行业将继续保持较快的增长。今年1—9月，我国石油天然气开采业累计投资达到908亿元，同比增长31%。我国石油机械装备业已经具备国际竞争力，并成为世界上主要的石油机械生产国，石油、天然气开采业的投资增长直接带动了钻采专用设备的快速增长。1—6月规模以上石油钻采专用设备企业实现销售收入77亿元，同比增长 45.1%。1—9月我国煤炭开采及洗选业投资达到648亿元，同比增长76.8%，带动了煤炭机械行业的快速增长。

Entering 2005, oil price rises unceasing, global oil exploration and exploitation activity appear recovery growth. It is expected that in 2006, the oil and gas mining industry and coal industry in the mining industry will continue to maintain rapid growth. From January to September this year, the accumulative investment in China's oil and gas exploitation industry reached 90.8 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year.
China's petroleum machinery and equipment industry has already had international competitiveness, and become the world's main petroleum machinery producer, oil, natural gas exploitation industry investment growth directly led to the rapid growth of special equipment for drilling and production. From January to June, the sales revenue of oil drilling and production equipment enterprises above designated size reached 7.7 billion yuan, up 45.1% year on year. From January to September, the investment in China's coal mining and washing industry reached 64.8 billion yuan, up 76.8% year on year, driving the rapid growth of the coal machinery industry.

　　铁路运输车辆制造进入黄金期

The manufacturing of railway transport vehicles has entered a golden period

　　2005年我国铁路大规模建设开始启动，新开工项目58个，续建项目48个，总投资规模达6000多亿元。1-9月我国铁路运输业共计完成投资629 亿元，同比增长41%，铁路网建设和机车车辆购置速度都在加快。但由于车轮、摇枕侧架等关键零部件短缺，造成铁路车辆特别是新造车辆生产放缓，部分车辆制造公司如北方创业等陷入困境。但我们预计明年机车车辆制造公司的经营活动将转入正常时期。

In 2005, China's large-scale railway construction began, with 58 new projects and 48 extended projects, with a total investment of more than 600 billion yuan. Investment in China's railway transport industry totaled 62.9 billion yuan from January to September, up 41 percent year on year, as railway network construction and rolling stock purchase accelerated. However, due to the shortage of key parts such as wheels and pillow side racks, the production of railway vehicles, especially newly built vehicles, has slowed down, and some vehicle manufacturing companies, such as Northern Chuangye, have been in trouble. But we expect business activities for rolling stock companies to return to a normal period next year.

　　根据铁路网中长期规划，预计未来15年中国铁路建设投入资金将达2万亿元，机车车辆投资占铁路总投资的比重将在较长时间内高于25%。因此，我国机车车辆制造业将处于持续繁荣的黄金时期。

According to the medium and long-term plan of the railway network, it is estimated that the investment in China's railway construction will reach 2 trillion yuan in the next 15 years, and the proportion of rolling stock investment in the total railway investment will exceed 25% in a relatively long period of time. Therefore, China's locomotive and rolling stock manufacturing industry will be in the golden period of continuous prosperity.

　　船舶制造业经历产业升级

Shipbuilding industry has undergone industrial upgrading

　　中国已发展成为世界第三造船大国。2005年的造船产量将超过1000万载重吨，约占世界造船份额的18%。预计到2010年，中国的造船产量占世界市场的份额将达到25%以上，形成中、日、韩“三足鼎立”的世界造船格局。1-9月，我国船舶产量仍维持30%的增长速度。上市公司广船国际销售收入和利润都实现了同步增长。国内船用柴油机主要供应商沪东重机销售收入增长19%，净利润增长88.6%。

China has developed into the world's third largest shipbuilding country. Shipbuilding output in 2005 will exceed 10 million deadweight tons, accounting for about 18% of the world's shipbuilding share. It is estimated that by 2010, China's shipbuilding output will account for more than 25% of the world market share, forming the world shipbuilding pattern of China, Japan and South Korea. From January to September, China's ship production still maintained a growth rate of 30%. APPEAR ON THE MARKET WIDE SHIP INTERNATIONAL SALES INCOME AND PROFIT REALIZED SYNCHRONIZED GROWTH. Hudong Heavy Machinery, a major domestic supplier of Marine diesel engines, saw a 19% increase in sales revenue and 88.6% increase in net profit.

　　目前，我国正成为世界上集装箱和集装箱起重机的制造中心。世界上90%以上的集装箱、60%以上的集装箱起重机产自我国，中集集团、振华港机已经成为世界龙头企业。1-9月，中集集团、振华港机销售收入、利润都实现大幅增长，但是，受集装箱需求回落影响，中集集团三季度单季收入和利润均出现下滑。

At present, China is becoming the manufacturing center of container and container crane in the world. More than 90% of the world's containers and more than 60% of the container cranes are produced in China. CIMC and Zhenhua Port Machinery have become the world's leading enterprises. From January to September, the sales revenue and profit of CIMC and Zhenhua Port Machinery Group both increased substantially. However, influenced by the drop in container demand, the revenue and profit of CIMC Group in the third quarter declined.

　　个股关注

Individual attention

　　关注瓶颈行业、产业技术升级行业的装备制造业，这两类子行业能够在防御周期性风险之余、实现高成长所到来的超额收益。可重点关注晋西车轴、江钻股份、天地科技、沪东重机、振华港机、安徽合力等上市公司。

Pay attention to the equipment manufacturing industry of the bottleneck industry and the industrial technology upgrading industry. These two sub-industries can realize the excess returns brought by high growth while defending cyclical risks. Can focus on Jinxi Axle, Jiangzhuo shares, Tiandi Science and Technology, Hudong Heavy Machinery, Zhenhua Port Machinery, Anhui Heli and other listed companies.